I would tend to agree with your assessment, despite my agnostic stance on the afterlife. I take the agnostic stance mostly for ethical reasons. Since I can’t know what will happen to “me” when I die, I won’t let any guesses as to what might happen cloud my judgement for what I am to do now with my life (ie. letting fear of hell guide my actions). If I am choosing to be good, I want that choice to be pure rather than being based on some believed reward that may or may not come to pass.

Having said that, I don’t mind speculating on what the afterlife may entail. I’m somewhere between the materialistic oblivion and the fourth option you mention. I don’t really believe that I/my ego/my identity will survive the death of my body. But then, I also believe that “I” am a fiction anyway. The story that my brain tells about my body probably won’t survive the death of my brain and body. But the story that other brains tell their bodies about the effect I had on them will survive as long as their brains survive. Further, there’s the very real effects that I’ve had on this world, the air I’ve breathed which will forever be entangled with my existence, the food I’ve eaten and pooped out, the things I’ve built and written… those will survive to a certain extent. The world has forever been changed by virtue of my living and acting within it, and the world will certainly survive my death but it won’t survive unscathed by my existence.

This is the crux of a message I received by my grandfathers (or some spirits posing as my grandfathers, or my subconscious doing the same) during a particularly deep meditation session. “Nothing is ever truly lost” they said. I believe them. The above is just the best way I know how to describe why.